Rare Earth; how rare? (Introduction)
But for me, a more personal answer is this: I don't think in terms of my own lifetime, David. An answer now based on obvious ignorance is worth nothing. But preparing the way for the future, so that the question(s) can conceivably be answered? THAT is the true work of a philosopher. THAT is Nietzsche's builder, the ubermensch incarnate.
Fair enough, but I'm happy with a current belief.